The parade of storms marks a sudden reawakening of the Atlantic basin that could kick hurricane season into overdrive in the coming weeks.The active stretch looks to carry into September, with multiple named storms probable through then.AD The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season already has featured a typical season’s worth of named storms, with 11 having formed through mid-August, although none were overly intense.The factory-like storm production included the earliest C, E, F, G, H, I, J and K storms ever recorded in the Atlantic, part of a season that has been nearly twice as active as average .
NOAA’s new hurricane outlook shows so many storms, we may have to turn to the Greek alphabet Tropical Storms Kyle and Josephine, both short-lived, dissipated over the weekend, but Laura and Marco are up next and could be assigned to either of the two more robust tropical waves as they continue to churn west.The National Hurricane Center says both waves, labeled 97L and 98L, have 80 and 90 percent likelihoods, respectively, of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next several days.AD The active bout stems from a broad area of rising motion set to overspread the Atlantic and enhance tropical cyclone development.The same weather system brought a flurry of activity to the Pacific, transforming Genevieve, now just south of the Baja Peninsula, from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Invest 97L The first system to watch was in the central Caribbean well south of Haiti early Wednesday, and it looks to remain well-behaved for the time being — but that could change by late in the week and into the weekend as it begins to slow down in the northwest Caribbean.AD Its forward speed has been a detriment to its prospects of organization.As long as it continues its speedy movement westward, it will in a sense be outrunning itself.

It is more difficult for a tropical disturbance’s low-, mid- and upper-level features to overlap and become organized if the system is moving too quickly.On satellite imagery, there was evidence to suggest that Invest 97L had decent upper-level outflow.Outflow, or the evacuation of air from a storm at the upper levels, allows more room for warm, juicy air to spiral inward near the surface.It’s easy to discern the high, wispy cirrus clouds entrained in the outflow radiating outward in a clockwise fashion.

That bodes well for 97L’s eventual maturation.For the time being, 97L lacks a well-defined, low-level center of circulation, and it probably will for a while.But things could change.AD AD By Friday, 97L will be in the northwestern Caribbean, where several things may occur.

If it remains over the water long enough, it will probably pick up a name before bringing heavy rainfall to Belize, Honduras or coastal Guatemala.Eventually, it would probably rain itself out over the Yucatán Peninsula but could redevelop in the Gulf.There is an outside chance 97L could thread the needle between Cancun and the western tip of Cuba, entering the Gulf in a slightly less disheveled state.In either scenario, at least some sort of lobe of more concentrated spin, or vorticity, could try to make it into the Gulf of Mexico next week, although the strength, organization and impacts of that remain unknown.Invest 98L Invest 98L, our second system, is attempting to consolidate and intensify, but shear, a change of wind speed and direction with height, is playing a game of atmospheric tug-of-war.That is inhibiting 98L’s ability to organize into a tropical depression.

AD AD Despite this, 98L looked very healthy on satellite, with well-defined inflow and outflow, and a more dense clustering of heavy showers and thunderstorms kindling the first signs of some broad low-level spin.

It’s easy to see why the National Hurricane Center pegged it with a 90 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours.Even if it gets named sooner rather than later, it probably won’t intensify too quickly because of lingering shear.That’s good news for the northern Leeward Islands and Lesser Antilles, including Puerto Rico, where the fledgling storm could pass close to or over late in the weekend or early next week.

Then things become interesting.98L will traipse west-northwestward, paralleling Hispaniola and Cuba for a time before potentially trying to curve northward.Its northward progress will be stunted by the Bermuda High, a high-pressure area working to block weather systems.AD AD 98L will probably try to strengthen, but the extent to which it does depends heavily on land interactions, including how long the disturbance spends over land and whether its track takes it through high terrain.

That said, trackwise, it’s a recipe for “one to watch” if you live in the Bahamas, Puerto Rico and south Florida, as well as eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.We’ll know more once the system develops a better area of spin and is subsequently named.A third wave Meanwhile, another tropical wave is exiting the coast of Africa, and it’s already blistering, with heavy thunderstorm activity over a wide area.Its center of circulation is over Senegal, and it will probably move offshore by late Wednesday, where it can tap into the anomalously warm waters of the Atlantic.AD The National Hurricane Center estimates a 20 percent chance of development, but there are reasons to believe that number will probably climb.That 20 percent probability maps to anticipated maturation in the next five days.AD At some point in its life cycle, it will probably develop.A season that could lurch into high gear The sudden uptick in tropical cyclone activity is fueled by the arrival of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave , or overturning circulation that meanders about the tropics.

On one side of the wave, air is more prone to sink, whereas it’s encouraged to rise on the other side.That regimen of enhanced upward motion is moving over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical cyclone development.Simultaneously, the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation will overlap, further exacerbating the period of activity.The Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, can be thought of as a region of aggrandized thunderstorm activity that marches around the globe every 30 to 60 days.

The two atmospheric features will conspire to bring about better tropical storm and hurricane chances, but equally important are water temperatures in the Atlantic.Across the basin, and particularly along the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, sea surface temperatures are anomalously warm part to climate change.That increases the probability of storms becoming stronger and wetter, while also heightening the risk that a storm may undergo rapid intensification ..