Follow August 18, 2020 at 12:27 PM EDT Two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic are likely to develop into tropical cyclones during the next week, with tracks that favor eventual impacts on land.The reawakening of the ocean basin comes after a brief period of relative quiet, and the active stretch, which could feature multiple named storms at the same time, is likely to last into September.arrow-right The 2020 hurricane season has already shattered records for the number of named storms that have formed, including two Category 1 hurricanes that made landfall in the United States.So far, a typical season’s worth of named storms has occurred before the typical peak of hurricane season even arrives in mid-September.Tropical Storms Kyle and Josephine dissipated over the weekend, but the next storms on the list, Laura and Marco, could materialize by the weekend as two fledgling tropical waves as they churn west and slowly gather strength.

The lead disturbance, which brought heavy rain to the Windward Islands on Monday, is lurking in the Caribbean.The National Hurricane Center gives it a 60 percent chance of development during the next five days.
NOAA’s new hurricane outlook shows so many storms, we may have to turn to the Greek alphabet Behind it lags a second disturbance midway between Africa and South America.The NHC is more bullish with this system, assigning it a 90 percent likelihood of development within five days.

Meanwhile, Pacific activity is blistering.Hurricane Genevieve, which was a tropical storm Monday morning, attained Category 4 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, before sunrise Tuesday after a bout of extremely rapid intensification.What’s happening in the eastern Pacific may be a preview of what’s ahead in the tropical Atlantic.Lead disturbance: Invest 97L Leading the pair of tropical waves westward is the system designated as Invest 97L.

It consists of a cluster of thunderstorms that recently entered the Caribbean as it quickly zips west.AD AD On satellite imagery Tuesday morning, two main clumps of shower and thunderstorm activity were visible charging westward.

Brighter colors associated with the eastern cluster represent colder and higher cloud tops, and more vigorous convection, or thunderstorm activity.It also appeared that the system was beginning to develop healthier inflow and outflow.

Inflow, or the counterclockwise inward spiral of warm, humid air at the surface, feeds a developing cyclone.Aloft, that air exits the system in a gentle clockwise fashion, the energy it once contained spent by the storm.This is how a tropical storm or hurricane breathes.Some semblance of inflow and the wispy high-altitude cirrus clouds of the outflow can be seen on the system’s northern flank.AD But the system is still struggling to organize, and probably will continue to encounter hurdles in the days ahead.Since it is moving west at such a decent clip, up to 20 mph at times, it is having trouble vertically aligning itself about a common center.AD That may change this weekend though, when the system is forecast to slow down as it nears the western Caribbean.At that point, it may be able to gain some strength, though uncertainty abounds.

It could head inland over the Yucatán Peninsula, drift northward or stall.On the off chance its core of spin — whether intact or remnant — threads the gap between Mexico and Cuba, it could be something to monitor in the Gulf of Mexico.Second disturbance: Invest 98L Behind the first disturbance lags a second tropical wave with even greater odds of development.Invest 98L is about halfway across the Atlantic, but it could have a name by the time it reaches the Americas.AD “A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days,” wrote the National Hurricane Center.The system is large and blistering, with intense showers and thunderstorms.Computer models are keen on its development, particularly since it looks to be fending off the choking effects of the dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer.That’s a layer of warm, dry air sourced from the Sahara Desert that can serve to squelch a tropical storm’s development.

AD The system will generally travel west-northwest and could potentially threaten the Lesser Antilles late in the week.In the long term, it does not appear to have much of an opportunity to drift out to sea, since a high-pressure area, known as the Bermuda High, is likely to be expansive and strong enough to keep it on a west-northwesterly course.AD That makes this system something to watch for the Bahamas and potentially even the Southeastern states in the extended range, though there is considerable uncertainty in both track and intensity forecasts so far in advance.

An active few weeks The next several weeks in the Atlantic look to teem with storm activity, thanks to several key underlying factors as well as climate and weather cycles that will all team up.Such cycles have contributed to Genevieve’s furious display over the Pacific and will overspread the Atlantic during the next few weeks.AD One of these influences is what’s known as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave , an overturning circulation in the tropical atmosphere.On one side of the wave, the air is prone to sink, discouraging hurricane development.On the other side, air is more prone to rise, significantly increasing the odds of generating a tropical cyclone.

That rising motion will soon be in place across the tropical Atlantic.AD In addition, the Madden-Julian Oscillation , a more expansive and slow-moving east to west overturning circulation that slides eastward across the tropics, circling the globe about every 30 to 60 days on average, will also be in position to generate more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.That can help instigate groups of showers and thunderstorms that then grow into tropical cyclones.The active period looks to last into at least September, potentially taking us to the middle of the month — the climatological peak of hurricane season.AD The overall setup for the 2020 hurricane season also favors an extreme outcome, with unusually warm ocean waters present throughout the tropical Atlantic, partly because of human-induced climate change.

Climate change also favors stronger and wetter storms with a greater ability to rapidly intensify.Exceptionally warm ocean waters, made possible in part as a result of human-caused climate change, also favor stronger and wetter storms with the propensity to rapidly intensify .Andrew Freedman contributed to this report..